As October wraps up, only a few major awards contenders
remain unseen by industry insiders — or are still under press embargo: Avatar:
Fire and Ash (20th Century), Ella McCay (20th Century), and Wicked:
For Good (Universal).
Since the last update, Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme
(A24) screened for industry audiences on October 8, with Timothée Chalamet’s
lead performance emerging as the standout. AFI Fest (October 22–26) brought the
world premieres of Nuremberg (Sony Classics), starring Russell Crowe and
Rami Malek, and Song Sung Blue (Focus), featuring Hugh Jackman and Kate
Hudson. Both were warmly received at Hollywood’s TCL Chinese Theatre but will
likely face tougher odds with critics.
The festival also hosted the Hollywood premieres of several
anticipated titles, including Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th
Century), preceded by a live performance from Bruce Springsteen himself; Jay
Kelly (Netflix), starring George Clooney and Adam Sandler; Christy
(Black Bear), with Sydney Sweeney and boxing legend Christy Martin in
attendance; Train Dreams (Netflix); Is This Thing On?
(Searchlight), showcasing Bradley Cooper and Will Arnett; Dead Man’s Wire
(Row K); Rental Family (Searchlight); The Testament of Ann Lee
(Searchlight); and The Chronology of Water (The Forge).
Festival season is also heating up across the U.S. The
Newport Beach Film Festival (Oct. 16–23) featured live podcast recordings with Frankenstein
(Netflix) supporting actor Jacob Elordi and Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix)
writer-director Rian Johnson. At the Middleburg Film Festival (Oct. 16–19), Hamnet
(Focus) and Rental Family tied for the audience award. Meanwhile, the
Virginia Film Festival (Oct. 22–26) hosted a live podcast with Jay Kelly
composer Nicholas Britell, and the SCAD Savannah Film Festival (Oct. 25–Nov. 1)
will feature Scott’s annual “Docs to Watch” panel, highlighting 10 top
documentary filmmakers. Up next is Miami GEMS (Oct. 29–Nov. 5), where he’ll
record a live conversation with Dead Man’s Wire director Gus Van Sant.
At the box office, Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me
from Nowhere — a $55 million production featuring Jeremy Allen White,
Jeremy Strong, and Odessa Young — underperformed, opening in nearly 3,500
theaters but earning just $9.1 million domestically and $7 million
internationally. By contrast, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia (Focus),
starring Jesse Plemons and Emma Stone, had a stellar limited debut in 17
theaters, earning a per-theater average of $40,588 — one of the year’s highest
— ahead of its nationwide expansion.
Meanwhile, Bill Condon’s musical adaptation Kiss of the
Spider Woman (Roadside) continues to struggle financially, earning only
$1.6 million after three weekends despite a reported $50 million budget.
Jennifer Lopez gives a strong performance in the role that won Chita Rivera a
Tony, but the film’s poor box office likely hurts its awards prospects.
One title gaining momentum is Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein
(Netflix). After a lukewarm start at Venice and Telluride, the film has been
earning stronger reactions at industry screenings and limited theatrical runs
ahead of its Nov. 7 Netflix debut. At a recent Los Angeles Academy members
screening, del Toro received a standing ovation during the post-show Q&A.
A Reminder:
Scott’s forecasts are not based on personal opinions or preferences. They aim
to predict how Academy voters will vote — not how they should.
His projections are informed by screenings, campaign strategies, conversations
with voters, and analysis of historical data and award trends.
Subscribe by Email
Follow Updates Articles from This Blog via Email
No Comments