The significance here isn’t simply that the world’s top exhibitor is rolling out another of Taylor Swift’s concert films. What makes this unusual is that no other studio has ever scheduled a wide release with barely two weeks’ notice, backed by a minimal P&A spend that relies almost entirely on the star’s social media promotion and still managed to land at No. 1 at the box office.
Download Taylor Swift: Showgirl
Projections for the film’s domestic launch are in the $30M–$35M
range across 3,500 theaters, aligning with the debut of the 14-time Grammy
winner’s 12th studio album. Internationally, where it’s opening in more
than 50 markets, expectations are another $8M–$10M, putting the global
first weekend near $45M. As with The Eras Tour, the bulk of
revenue will come from the U.S. and Canada.
One detail still under wraps is the identity of the
director. Last time, Sam Wrench handled the concert doc, but Swift herself has
directed many of her music videos and has expressed interest in moving into
features.
Swift’s fanbase is notoriously hard to pin down on tracking.
The Eras Tour was initially projected for a $100M+ domestic bow but
ultimately delivered $93.2M, the second-best October opening ever, just
behind Joker (2019) at $96.2M. Early metrics for Showgirl suggest
women under 25 are driving demand, with 25% picking it as their first choice
compared to 9% of women over 25 and only low single digits among men.
Download Taylor Swift: Showgirl in 720p
Download Taylor Swift: Showgirl in 1080p
In terms of presales, Showgirl opened strong with $15M
in first-day sales, half of which came through AMC, marking its sixth-biggest
presale day ever. Sources now peg advance sales above $20M. The film
is set for a one-weekend-only run with no Thursday previews.
At its core, the project functions primarily as an
album-promotion vehicle. The movie tickets are almost a bonus revenue stream.
Swift’s PR blitz includes a Graham Norton Show appearance in the U.K., a
Spotify pop-up in NYC running through Oct. 2, and scheduled U.S.
late-night visits: The Tonight Show on Oct. 6 and Late Night with
Seth Meyers on Oct. 8. A surprise cameo on the Saturday Night Live
Season 51 premiere wouldn’t be out of character either.
Swift’s release also reshaped the theatrical landscape for
other titles. A24’s The Smashing Machine, starring Dwayne Johnson, was
expected to dominate but lost premium large-format screens to Showgirl,
as did Warner Bros.’ One Battle After Another in its second weekend.
Meanwhile, Disney’s 3D re-release of James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of
Water is playing in 2,100 theaters with projections of $3M–$4M,
and features rotating sneak peeks of the upcoming Avatar: Fire & Ash.
Though Avatar 2 will hold 90% of Imax screens, Anderson’s One Battle
After Another will retain Imax 70mm showings.
The Leonardo DiCaprio drama hopes for a modest $13M
second weekend, down about 40%, which would be a decent hold. After five
days, it has earned $27.7M, just slightly behind the same timeframe for Killers
of the Flower Moon.
Download Taylor Swift: Showgirl in 720p
Download Taylor Swift: Showgirl in 1080p
As for The Smashing Machine, made on a $50M net
budget mostly covered by foreign presales, its opening is now forecast at $9M–$10M
from 3,000 theaters — well below the initial $20M projections. Directed by
Benny Safdie, the film drew a warm response at Venice and TIFF (76% on Rotten
Tomatoes), highlighted by Johnson tearing up during a standing ovation. The
story follows MMA and UFC champion Mark Kerr, exploring his wrestling
tours in Japan, his battles with addiction, and his stormy marriage to his
wife, played by Emily Blunt. Its best audience appears to be men over 25, with
Johnson’s loyal fans and WWE enthusiasts seen as the key driver of ticket sales.
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